DOI: https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v3i26.144283

FORECASTING CARGO DEPARTURE BY RAILWAY TRANSPORT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ECONOMIC CHANGES IN UKRAINE

O. N. Kyrylenko, E. N. Razumova, V. O. Novak, V. V. Razanovska

Abstract


The article analyzes the forecast of transportation of coal by rail (as a cargo with the most specific weight in the structure of transportation) with the help of the proposed autoregressive model of growth, taking into account economic changes in Ukraine. It was also proved that the volumes of transportation of goods by rail are closely related to the volumes of production of industrial goods and agricultural products. The volume of goods shipment by rail is characterized by close relationship with the output of production of industrial and agricultural goods. The forecast of departure of coal by rail was developed in the article (as cargo with the highest share in the overall cargo turnover) on the basis of autoregressive model of growth considering economical changes in Ukraine. Taking into account the experience of international countries, ensuring the efficient operation of the rail transport operation is possible only on the basis of developing a forecast of its activities. This will allow to find a reserve for its transportation and throughput. Informational and methodological basis for the article is publications of scientists doing research in the field in question , materials of periodicals and Internet sources. Taking into account the country’s production potential for the study of economic development of both rail transport as a whole and its separate lines, including those with low activity, the authors developed a model of economic growth for both the gross domestic product as a whole and for individual branches the current economic structure of Ukraine, especially for rail transport. The quality of available statistical information influences significantly not only the process of parameterization, but also the quality of the model and the results of the whole modelling process. The information on the dynamics of economic features is used. It is represented in the form of time series of indicators. Time series of this economic variable is a sequence of values, measured at regular time intervals during the analyzed period. According to the results, the turnover of Ukrainian railways (including low-intensity lines) will decrease in subsequent years. This is due to a decrease in production in many sectors of the economy. At the same time, the achieved results should be taken into account in the operational model of railways in the future.


Keywords


railway transport; structure of cargo; autocorrelation function; forecast; economic development.

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References


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Copyright (c) 2018 Оксана Кириленко, E. N. Razumova, V. O. Novak, V. V. Razanovska

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ISSN (print) 2306-4994, ISSN (on-line) 2310-8770