RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BIOFUEL PROJECTS: PROBLEMS OF METHODOLOGY
Keywords:biofuels, risks, agriculture, risk assessment, risk assessment methods
Excessive use of traditional fuels in various sectors of the economy has led to the problem of exacerbation of environmental problems, rising CO2 emissions, climate change and so on. Therefore, the share of renewable energy sources, among which biofuels play an important role, has been growing in the last few decades. If the world pays considerable attention to the development of this area of alternative energy, in Ukraine, unfortunately, so far this segment has not found the right place. Agricultural, food and other enterprises are implementing various projects for the operation of production sites for the production of various types of biofuels. This, in turn, reduces the level of dependence on external price fluctuations, untimely supply of traditional fuels to enterprises, caused by seasonality in agricultural activities. However, we must not forget about the high level of risks associated with this area of business (economic) activity. Practical observations show, for the most part, that entrepreneurs (business owners) focus on subjectively-oriented methods of risk assessment, which are based on expert opinions, reducing the importance of objectively-oriented and analytical methods. Despite the obstacles to the development of biofuel production in the world and in Ukraine in particular, scientists are conducting fundamental and applied research in the use of the world’s best achievements in the use of mathematical apparatus for the evaluation of investment projects. The use of mathematical methods and models to select an effective risk assessment for biofuel production was no exception. Currently, the risk assessment of these projects takes into account: natural and climatic risks, market prices for primary products or waste products, equipment costs, prices for biofuels compared to traditional types, and so on. The methodological basis of risk assessment is contained in DSTU IEC/ISO 31010: 2013 and IEC/ISO 31010: 2009, which is the basis for the construction and use of business project assessment in various economic activities. The most effective, in terms of risk assessment for biofuel projects, is the introduction of automated information systems in business process modeling. This, in turn, makes it possible to use effective methods, namely: Multiple Imputation, leading indicators, event tree analysis, Value at Risk and correlation-regression analysis methods.
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