STRATEGIC PRIORITIES OF BUDGET POLICY OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Keywords:budget policy, budget strategy, macro indicators, budget deficit, COVID-19 pandemic
In the paper the strategic priorities of budget policy of Ukraine under current conditions are examines. The global COVID-19 pandemic has exposed gaps in the resilience of financial systems. The purpose of the article is to assess the adequacy of strategic priorities of Ukraine’s budget policy and its adaptability to global challenges. In these conditions, the importance of the state and the development of new strategic priorities of fiscal policy will only increase. Using monthly statistics from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine from January 2018 to September 2020, the article hypothesizes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the amount of money spent by the State Budget of Ukraine, health care expenditures, economic activity and tax revenues.
The authors believe that the fight against COVID-19 affects the monetary expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine, as well as the consumer price index and other indicators of economic efficiency in Ukraine. In addition, based on the results of the regression, the consumer price index is the most influential factor in the monetary expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine. At the same time, COVID-19 affects the expenditures of health care, but does not affect the expenditures of economic activities and local budget expenditures. This means that the main goal of Ukraine’s economic policy is to limit the spread of the virus among the population to prevent the economy from stopping.
Much of the research on strategic fiscal policy priorities, their changes, and compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic is relatively low. Previous studies have not used the influence of currently unique exogenous factors of a global nature. Adherence to the priorities of budget funding in a pandemic, taking into account the phases of its development will assess the effectiveness of fiscal policy in accordance with existing conditions. The authors of the article propose the main strategic priorities of Ukraine’s budget policy in terms of COVID-19.
Forecasted global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), from 2019 to 2021. (2020). statista.com. Retrived from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102889/covid-19-forecasted-global-real-gdp-growth.
International Monetary Fund. (2020). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/UKR.
Del Rio-Chanona, R. M., Mealy, P., Pichler, A., Lafond, F., & Farmer, D. (2020). Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. Retrieved from https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06759.
Cheberiako, O. V., & Varnalii, Z. S. (2017). Finansovi peredumovy ta otsinka finansuvannia oborony v umovakh rosiisko-ukrainskoi hibrydnoi viiny [Financial preconditions and assessment of defense financing in the Russian-Ukrainian hybrid war]. Naukovyi visnyk Polissia — Scientific Bulletin of Polissya, 4 (12), 1, 143—149 [in Ukrainian].
Bénassy-Quéré, A., Marimon, R., Pisani-Ferry, J., Reichlin, L., Schoenmaker, D., & di Weder, B. M. (2020). COVID-19: Europe Needs a Catastrophe Relief Plan. In Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes. Center for Economic Policy and Research. Washington, DC: CEPR Press.
Furman, J. (2020). Protecting People Now, Helping the Economy Rebound Later. In Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes. Center for Economic Policy and Research. Washington, DC: CEPR Press.
Gopinath, G. (2020). Limiting the Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus with Large Targeted Policies. In Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes. Center for Economic Policy and Research. Washington, DC: CEPR Press.
World Bank. (2013). World Development Report 2014: Managing Risk for Development. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Voronenko, M., Nikytenko, D., Krejci J., Savina, N., & Lytvynenko, V. (2020, April 27 — May 1). Assessing the Possibility of a Country’s Economic Growth Using Static Bayesian Network Models. S. Subbotin (Ed.). The Third International Workshop on Computer Modeling and Intelligent Systems (CMIS-2020). Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Retriеved from http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2608/paper35.pdf.
North, D. C. (1991). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York: Macmillan Cambridge University Press.
Chugunov, I., Makohon, V., & Кrykun, T. (2019). Budget strategy in the conditions of economic globalization. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 17 (3), 101—110. doi:10.21511/ppm.17(3).2019.08.
Cheberiako, O., & Klekota, O. (2019). Biudzhetna polityka Ukrainy u sferi vydatkiv yak bazys perspektyvnoho ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Budget policy of Ukraine in the field of expenditures as a basis for promising economic development]. Visnyk Kyivskoho Natsionalnoho universytetu imeni Tarasa Shevchenka. Ekonomika — Bulletin of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economy, 5 (206), 41—47. doi:10.17721/1728-2667.2019/206-5/6 [in Ukrainian].
Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy. (2017). Promova Ministra finansiv Oleksandra Danyliuka pid chas predstavlennia proektu derzhbiudzhetu na 2018 rik u Verkhovnii Radi Ukrainy 22.09.2017 [Speech by the Minister of Finance Oleksandr Danyliuk during the presentation of the draft state budget for 2018 in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on September 22, 2017]. Retrieved from https://mof.gov.ua/uk/news/promova-ministra-finansiv-oleksandra-danyliuka-pid-chas-predstavlennia-proektu-derzhbiudzhetu-na--rik-u-verkhovnii-radi-ukrainy- [in Ukrainian].
Kabinet Ministriv Ukrainy. (2019). Stepan Kubiv nazvav priorytetni napriamky biudzhetnoho finansuvannia u 2019 rotsi [Stepan Kubiv named the priority areas of budget funding in 2019]. Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/news/stepan-kubiv-nazvav-prioritetni-napryamki-byudzhetnogo-finansuvannya-u-2019-roci [in Ukrainian].
Tsentr hromadskoho monitorynhu i kontroliu. (2019). Biudzhet-2020. Na shcho pidut derzhavni hroshi? [Budget 2020. What will the state money be used for?]. Retrieved from https://naglyad.org/uk/2019/11/18/byudzhet-2020-na-shho-pidut-derzhavni-groshi [in Ukrainian].
Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy. (2020). Ministr finansiv Serhii Marchenko prezentuvav proekt derzhbiudzhetu na 2021 rik [Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko presented the draft state budget for 2021]. Retrieved from https://mof.gov.ua/uk/news/ministr_finansiv_sergii_marchenko_prezentuvav_proekt_derzhbiudzhetu_na_2021_rik-2420 [in Ukrainian].
Tax and Fiscal Policy in Response to the Coronavirus Crisis: Strengthening Confidence and Resilience. (n. d.). OECD. Retrieved from https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=128_128575-o6raktc0aa&title=Tax-and-Fiscal-Policy-in-Response-to-the-Coronavirus-Crisis [in Ukrainian].
Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy. (2020). Fond borotby z hostroiu respiratornoiu khvoroboiu COVID-19, sprychynenoiu koronavirusom SARS-CoV-2, ta yii naslidkamy [COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Disease Foundation for SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus and Its Consequences]. Retrieved from https://mof.gov.ua/uk/data_and_analytics-433 [in Ukrainian].
Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy. (2020). Derzhavnyi vebportal biudzhetu dlia hromadian [State web portal of the budget for citizens]. Retrieved from https://openbudget.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
Lukianenko, I, Oliskevych, M., & Bazhenova, O. (2020). Regimes Switching Modeling of Unemployment Rate in Eastern Europe. Ekonomický časopis, 68 (4), 380—408.
Varnalii, Z. S., Onyshchenko, S. V., & Maslii, O. A. (2016). Mekhanizm poperedzhennia zahroz ekonomichnii bezpetsi Ukrainy [Mechanism for preventing threats to economic security of Ukraine]. Ekonomichnyi chasopys-XXI — Economic Annals-XXI, 159 (5—6), 20—24. doi:10.21003/ea.V159-04 [in Ukrainian].
Copyright (c) 2020 Z. Varnalii, O. Cheberyako, O. Bazhenova, D. Nikytenko, R. Bilyk
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors of research articles published in the Collection agree to the following terms:
- authors reserve the right to his authorship of scientific articles and broadcast journal right of first publication of scientific articles licensed under CC Attribution (Creative Commons Attribution License), which allows others to freely distribute the published scientific article referring to the original authors of the article and the first publication of the article in Research Works’ Collection on "Finance and credit activity: problems of theory and practice";
- authors have the right to enter a separate agreement concerning additional exclusive distribution of the article in the form it was published in the journal (for example, to post the research in an electronic storage of the establishment or publish as a part of a monograph), provided that the reference to the first publication of the article in the Collection.